Pakistani journalist and Afghan expert Ahmed Rashid discusses with David Watts the potential crises facing Afghanistan once foreign forces withdraw.
- The US wants to keep 10-20,000 troops in Afghanistan after the 2014 deadline
There can be no successful NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan if the civil war is going to continue.
'The belief in the Pentagon that somehow US forces can withdraw and Afghan forces can move into the same trench, replace them and continue firing at the same Taliban — that this can pass off very smoothly is fraught with enormous problems for anyone who knows and understands Afghanistan,' says Ahmed Rashid, journalist par excellence and doyen of Afghan experts.
Strategically, he says, the priority is to reduce the conflict over the next 18 months and aim to have the talks between the US and the Taliban end in some kind of ceasefire and then have the Karzai government join them in a power-sharing structure that would bring an end to the civil war.
But, at the same time, he finds it impossible to imagine that Afghanistan could sustain itself against both the Taliban and the machinations of her neighbours, which would erupt once foreign forces left.
'The belief in the Pentagon that somehow US forces can withdraw and Afghan forces can move into the same trench, replace them and continue firing at the same Taliban — that this can pass off very smoothly is fraught with enormous problems for anyone who knows and understands Afghanistan,' says Ahmed Rashid, journalist par excellence and doyen of Afghan experts.
Strategically, he says, the priority is to reduce the conflict over the next 18 months and aim to have the talks between the US and the Taliban end in some kind of ceasefire and then have the Karzai government join them in a power-sharing structure that would bring an end to the civil war.
But, at the same time, he finds it impossible to imagine that Afghanistan could sustain itself against both the Taliban and the machinations of her neighbours, which would erupt once foreign forces left.
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